Cambio tecnológico y reto demográfico en territorios olivareros de Andalucía, España

Abstract

The expansion of high-density olive orchards, encouraged by the ability to increase production and reduce operating costs, is the most recent development of a crop that has been grown in the Mediterranean for millennia. The aim of this work is to anticipate to what extent its advance is possible, either by substitution of other crops or by restructuring the existing olive grove in areas where tradition dominates. Among other things, it is of interest to know what its impact may be in terms of employment, considering that the activity is rooted in rural municipalities facing the challenge of aging and depopulation. The main conclusion is that there are conditions that can facilitate a rapid and widespread conversion of traditional olive groves to super-intensive. However, these models are not generalizable to the entire cultivated area. Given the complexity and interaction between the variables considered, the paper concludes by advocating further research for anticipating the impact of this scenario of change in relation to employment, farmers’ income and the evolution of rural population.