Forecasting olive crop yields based on long-term aerobiological data series and bioclimatic conditions for the southern Iberian Peninsula

  1. Aguilera Padilla, Fátima
  2. Ruiz Valenzuela, Luis
Revista:
Spanish journal of agricultural research

ISSN: 1695-971X,  2171-9292

Año de publicación: 2014

Volumen: 12

Número: 1

Páginas: 215-224

Tipo: Artículo

DOI: 10.5424/SJAR/2014121-4532 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openDialnet editor

Otras publicaciones en: Spanish journal of agricultural research

Resumen

In the present study, bio-meteorological models for predicting olive-crop production in the southern Iberian Peninsula were developed. These covered a 16-year period: 1994-2009. The forecasting models were constructed using the partial least-squares regression method, taking the annual olive yield as the dependent variable, and both aerobiological and meteorological parameters as the independent variables. Two regression models were built for the prediction of crop production prior to the final harvest at two different times of the year: July and November. The percentage variance explained by the models was between 83% and 93%. Through these forecasting models, the main factors that influence olive-crop yield were identified. Pollen index and accumulated precipitation, especially as rain recorded during the pre-flowering months, were the most important parameters for providing an explanation of fluctuations in fruit production. The temperature recorded during the two months preceding budburst was another important variable, which showed positive effects on the final yield. The July model that provides accurate predictions of fruit production eight months prior to the final harvest is proposed as an optimal model to forecast fruit produced by olive trees in western Mediterranean areas

Referencias bibliográficas

  • Aguilera F, Ruiz Valenzuela L, 2009. Study of the floral phenology of Olea europaea L. in Jaen province (SE Spain) and its relation with pollen emission. Aerobiologia 25: 217-225. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10453-009-9127-5
  • Aguilera F, Ruiz Valenzuela L, 2012. Altitudinal fluctuations in the olive pollen emission: an approximation from the olive groves of the southeast Iberian Peninsula. Aerobiologia 28: 403-411. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10453-011-9244-9
  • Aguilera F, Ruiz L, Fornaciari M, Romano B, Galán C, Oteros J, Ben Dhiab A, Msallem M, Orlandi F, 2013. Heat accumulation period in the Mediterranean region: phenological response of the olive in different climate areas (Spain, Italy and Tunisia). Int J Biometeorol 04/2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00484-013-0666-7
  • Araque E, Gallego VJ, Sánchez JD, 2002. Irrigated olive grove in the province of Jaén. Investigaciones Geográficas 28: 5-32. [In Spanish].
  • Barranco D, Fernández-Escobar R, Rallo L, (eds.), 2008. Olive cultivation (6th ed). Junta de Andalucía y Ediciones Mundi-Prensa, Sevilla, Spain. 846 pp. [In Spanish].
  • Baugnent E, 1991. Contribution to study forecasts of wine from the analysis of the pollen content in the atmosphere. Dissertation studies. National School of Agricultural Engineers. Bordeaux, France. [In French].
  • Bonofiglio T, Orlandi F, Sgromo C, Romano B, Fornaciari M, 2008. Influence of temperature and rainfall on timing of olive (Olea europaea) flowering in southern Italy. New Zeal J Crop Hortic Sci 36: 59-69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01140670809510221
  • Candau Fernández-Mensaque P, González-Minero FJ, Morales J, Tomas C, 1998. Forecasting olive (Olea europaea) crop production by monitoring airborne pollen. Aerobiologia 14: 185-190. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02694204
  • Capra A, Pavanelli D, 2010. Interactions between climate change, bioclimate and soil erosion in different climatic areas in Italy. Proc 6th Alexander von Humboldt Int Conf Climate Change, Natural Hazards, and Societies Merida, Mexico.
  • Challinor AJ, Wheeler TR, 2008. Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: processes and uncertainties. Agr Forest Meteorol 148: 343-356. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.09.015
  • Chuine I, Cour P, Rousseau DD, 1999. Selecting models to predict the timing of flowering of temperate trees: implications for tree phenology modelling. Plant Cell Environ 22: 1-13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-3040.1999.00395.x
  • Cunha M, Abreu I, Pinto P, Castro R, 2003. Airborne pollen samples for early-season estimates of wine production in a Mediterranean climate of northern Portugal. Am J Enol Viticult 54: 189-194.
  • De Boissezon H, 1995. Rapid estimates of acreage and potential yield in the European Union. Proc Workshop for the Central and Eastern Europe on: Agrometeorological models: Theory and Applications in the MARS project, Ispra. 21-25 Nov 1994.
  • Fornaciari M, Galán C, Mediavilla A, Domínguez E, Romano B, 2000. Aeropalynological and phenological study in two olive Mediterranean areas: Cordoba (Spain) and Perugia (Italy). Plant Biosyst 134: 199-204. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/11263500012331358474
  • Fornaciari M, Pieroni L, Orlandi F, Romano B, 2002. A new approach to consider the pollen variable in forecasting yield models. Econ Bot 56: 66-72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1663/0013-0001(2002)056[0066:ANATCT]2.0.CO;2
  • Fornaciari M, Orlandi F, Romano B, 2005. Yield forecasting for olive trees: a new approach in a historical series (Umbria, central Italy). Agron J 97: 1537-1542. http://dx.doi.org/10.2134/agronj2005.0067
  • Galán C, Cari-anos P, García-Mozo H, Alcázar P, Domínguez E, 2001. Model for forecasting Olea europaea L. airborne pollen in south-west Andalusia, Spain. Int J Biometeorol 45: 59-63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s004840100089
  • Galán C, Vázquez L, García-Mozo H, Domínguez E, 2004. Forecasting olive (Olea europaea L.) crop yield based on pollen emission. Field Crops Res 86: 43-51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4290(03)00170-9
  • Galán C, Cari-anos P, Alcázar P, Domínguez E, 2007. Manual of quality and management of the Spanish aerobiology network. Publ Serv of the University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain [in Spanish].
  • Galán C, García-Mozo H, Vázquez L, Ruiz Valenzuela L, Díaz de la Guardia C, Domínguez E, 2008. Modeling olive crop yield in Andalusia, Spain. Agron J 100: 98-104. http://dx.doi.org/10.2134/agrojnl2006.0345
  • García-Mozo H, Orlandi F, Galán C, Fornaciari M, Romano B, Ruiz L, Díaz de la Guardia C, Trigo MM, Chuine I, 2008. Olive flowering phenology variation between different cultivars in Spain and Italy: modelling analysis. Theor Appl Climatol 95: 385-395. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-008-0016-6
  • Giorgi, F, Lionello P, 2008. Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Global Planet Change 63: 90-104. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005
  • González-Minero FJ, Candau P, Morales J, Tomás C, 1998. Forecast olive crop production based on ten consecutive years of monitoring airborne pollen in Andalucía (southern Spain). Agr Ecosyst Environ 69: 201-215. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0167-8809(98)00105-4
  • Hirst JM, 1952. An automatic volumetric spore trap. Ann Appl Biol 39: 257-265. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7348.1952.tb00904.x
  • International Olive Council, 2011. Market Newsletter 55. November, 2011. IOC, Madrid, Spain. Available in http://www.internationaloliveoil.org.
  • Lavee S, 1994. Why the need for new varieties of olives? Fruticultura 62: 29-38. [In Spanish].
  • Lletjos R, Bartroli R, Esteban A, Riera S, 1993. Forecasting hazelnut (Corylus avellana L.) crop production based on monitoring airborne pollen concentration. Proc IV Int Symp on Fruit, Nut and Veg Prod Eng (Juste F, ed). Valencia-Zaragoza (Spain), March 22-26.
  • Miller AJ, 1990. Subset selection in regression. Marcel Dekker, NY. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-2939-6
  • Moriondo M, Trombi G, Ferrise R, Brandani G, Dibari C, Ammann CM, Mariotti-Lipi M, Bindi M, 2013. Olive trees as bio-indicators of climate evolution in the Mediterranean basin. Global Ecol Biogeograph 22: 818-833. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/geb.12061
  • Orlandi F, Romano B, Fornaciari M, 2005a. Relationship between pollen emission and fruit production in olive (Olea europaea L.). Grana 44: 98-103. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00173130510010440
  • Orlandi F, Romano B, Fornaciari M, 2005b. Effective pollination period estimation in olive (Olea europaea L.): a pollen monitoring application. Sci Hortic 105: 313-318. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2005.01.012
  • Orlandi F, Sgromo C, Bonofiglio T, Ruga L, Romano B, Fornaciari M, 2010. Yield modelling in a Mediterranean species utilizing cause-effect relationships between temperature forcing and biological processes. Sci Hortic 123: 412-417. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2009.09.015
  • Orlandi F, García-Mozo H, Ben Dhiab A, Galán C, Mssallem M, Fornaciari M, 2014. Olive tree phenology and climate variations in the Mediterranean area over the last two decades. Theor Appl Climatol 115: 207-218. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0892-2
  • Oteros J, García-Mozo H, Hervás-Martínez C, Galán C, 2012. Year clustering analysis for modelling olive flowering phenology. Int J Biometeorol 57: 545-555. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0581-3
  • Oteros J, Orlandi F, García-Mozo H, Aguilera F, Ben Dhiab A, Bonofiglio T, Abichou M, Ruiz-Valenzuela L, Trigo MM, Díaz de la Guardia C et al., 2013. Better prediction of Mediterranean olive production using pollen-based models. Agron Sustain Dev http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13593-013-0198-x
  • Palm R, 1995. Regression methods including the Eurostat Agromet model and time trends. Joint Research Centre of the EU, Publication EUR 16008 EN, Office for Official Publications of the EU, Luxembourg.
  • Porter JR, Semenov MA, 2005. Crop responses to climatic variation. Philos T R Soc B 360: 2021-2035. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1752
  • Rallo L, 1994. Fruit and olive production. Agricultura: revista agropecuaria 63/746: 725-728 [in Spanish].
  • Rapoport HF, Hammami SBM, Martins P, Pérez-Priego O, Orgaz F. 2012. Influence of water deficits at different times during olive tree inflorescence and flower development. Environ Exp Bot 77: 227-233. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envexpbot.2011.11.021
  • Reale L, Sgromo C, Bonofiglio T, Orlandi F, Fornaciari M, Ferranti F, Romano B, 2006. Reproductive biology of olive (Olea europaea L.) DOP Umbria cultivars. Sex Plant Reprod 19: 151-161. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00497-006-0032-6
  • Refaeilzadeh P, Tang L, Liu H, 2009. Cross-validation. In: Encyclopedia of database systems (Liu L, Özsu MT, eds.). Springer, pp: 532-538.
  • Ribeiro H, Cunha M, Abreu I, 2007. Improving early season estimates of olive production using airborne pollen multi-sampling sites. Aerobiologia 23: 71-78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10453-007-9050-6
  • Ribeiro H, Cunha M, Abreu I, 2008. Quantitative forecasting of olive yield in northern Portugal using a bioclimatic model. Aerobiologia 24: 141-150. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10453-008-9094-2
  • Rovira M, Tous J, 2005. Production and pollen viability in olive varieties in Spain. Madrid-Barcelona-México. Coed. Junta de Andalucía/Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación/Ediciones Mundi-Prensa. [In Spanish].
  • Serrano I, Suárez C, Olmedilla A, Rapoport HF, Rodríguez-García MI, 2008. Structural organization and cytochemical features of the pistil in olive (Olea europaea L.) cv. Picual at anthesis. Sex Plant Reprod 21: 99-111. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00497-008-0075-y
  • Sharman M, De Boisezzon H, Gonzales G, Pous B, 1992. Rapid estimates of acreages and potential yield at a European scale. Proc 43rd Cong Int Astronaut Fed, Washington DC (USA), Ag 28-Sept 5. pp: 2-5.
  • Sinclair TR, Seligman N, 2000. Criteria for publishing papers on crop modelling. Field Crop Res 65: 165-172. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4290(00)00105-2
  • Vergni L, Todisco F, 2011. Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation, temperature and agricultural drought indices in central Italy. Agr Forest Meteorol 151: 301-313. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.11.005
  • Villalobos FJ, Testi L, Hidalgo J, Pastor M, Orgaz F, 2006. Modelling potential growth and yield of olive (Olea europaea L.) canopies. Eur J Agron 24: 296-303. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2005.10.008
Fuente de los datos: Dialnet