Modelling land change scenarios in the Gaza strip and impacts on the environmental elements

Abstract

This submission for “Grouping of Research” or “PhD by Publication” includes four studies of land use change in the Gaza Strip (Palestine) and its impact on the environment in this region. According to the regulations of the University of Granada, a doctoral thesis can consist of “grouping of research” presented in the form of a report on the research articles published by the doctoral student in academic journals or in relevant scientific circles in their field of knowledge. The recommendation of the Doctorate Advisory Board is that those PhD students using this format should include a minimum of three articles and a report about the impact factor of the submitted publications. I have so far produced 4 pieces of research that have either been published or are in the process. Two studies (Chapter 5 and Chapter 7) were published in the Arabian Journal of Geosciences – Journal Citation Report (JCR) 1.224. Of these, Chapter 5 was cited by one article and Chapter 7 was cited by 30 articles and one book chapter according to Google Scholar. I have also written a book chapter (Chapter 6 - in press 2018), and another article (currently under review - Chapter 8). In line with the regulations of the University of Granada on the sections that this kind of thesis must contain, we begin by presenting a summary of the thesis. This is followed by Part I which is divided into 4 chapters: Chapter 1, which presents the background and Literature Review, concepts, and thesis structure, Chapter 2 which sets out the Hypothesis and Objectives. Chapter 3, which describes the study area, focusing on the natural features of the Gaza Strip, its population, socio-economic status, land use change in recent decades, the contribution of the Gaza Strip to climate change, transportation and the political situation. Chapter 4 explains the methodology used in the four articles. Part II has two chapters (an article - Chapter 5 and a book chapter - Chapter 6) that set out the results and discussions of the methodology presented in Chapter 4. Part III contains two chapters: one published article (Chapter 7) and one article under review (Chapter 8). This is followed by the discussion and the overall conclusions and perspectives of the thesis. The thesis ends with two Annexes: Annex I – Impact factor and quality analysis of contributions (Chapter 7, Chapter 5. Chapter 6). Annex II - CO2 emissions in the Gaza Strip. 1. Introduction The Gaza Strip has been a theatre of conflict for decades. Each of these conflicts has left its mark, and a significant environmental footprint has developed in the Gaza Strip over time (UNEP 2009). The population growth rate and the urban expansion it drives affect the whole region. In general people prefer to live close to the urban facilities and infrastructures, usually found in the center of the residential areas, and to avoid the dangerous areas. The Gaza Strip has been directly involved in many wars, most recently in 2008, 2012 and 2014. The 2014 war was the most destructive in terms of buildings and infrastructure. The Israeli offensive against the Gaza Strip was launched on 8th July and continued until 26th August 2014. It left devastation all across this region, ranging from damage to complete destruction of thousands of homes. Post-war reconstruction is likely to exacerbate the normal urban growth rate, so placing a greater burden on this already congested country. Land use and land cover in the Gaza Strip is subject to increasing pressure from population growth, which is leading to the depletion and degradation of already impacted environmental features such as water, land and natural resources. These can also have direct consequences for public health. Understanding, predicting and analyzing land use and cover change is enormously important for future planning. One of the major factors affecting land use in the Gaza Strip is rapid population growth, one of the most significant issues in Palestinian society today. According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS), with the recent growth rates of 3.44% in mid-2013, and 3.41% in mid 2014 (PCBS 2014) the population of the Gaza Strip will have grown to over 2.4 million by 2023. This area already has one of the highest population densities in the world with an estimated 3,956 persons/ km² in 2006. The population growth rate and the urban expansion it drives affect the whole region. This figure is even higher in the Gaza Governorate (around 6,834 persons / km²) where most of the population is concentrated. Another serious problem in Gaza is urban sprawl. The number of housing units in the Gaza Strip increased from 116,445 in 1997 to 147,437 in 2007 (PCBS 2012). Many human and natural factors have increased pressure on land use in this region, resulting in deteriorating quality and quantity of land (Abuelaish and Camacho 2016). Urbanization leads to increasing pressure on natural ecosystems (Taubenbock et al. 2012, Haas and Ban 2014) and brings with it soil, water and air pollution (Duh et al. 2006, Ren et al. 2003). Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is a key driver of global environmental change and has important implications for many national and international policy issues (Nunes and Auge 1999; Lambin 2001) indicating that the impacts of land use and land cover change are critical to many government programmes. Documenting the rates, driving forces and consequences of change is therefore vital. Land use/land cover change is often related to land planning, food watch and urban growth (Paegelow and Camacho, 2008). In developing countries, urban sprawl is worsened by the lack of land-use planning (Jat et al. 2008; Bayramoglu and Gundogmus 2008; Han et al. 2009; Biggs et al. 2010; Lee and Choe 2011). 2. Hypothesis and Objectives 2 .1. Hypothesis The main hypothesis of this research is that the normal urban growth rate in the Gaza Strip, which results in particular from urban development and agricultural conversion, is strongly influenced by the dynamic changes in the political situation. The inherent instability of this situation makes it very difficult to assess the rate of land use and land cover change (LUCC) in the Gaza Strip. Models were therefore set up to evaluate changes in different land use and land cover data over various periods, as a function of the changes in the political situation. These models can be tested empirically to enable us to make predictions and evaluate scenarios for the future of the Gaza Strip, considering all non-urban areas as agricultural areas. Our secondary hypothesis deals with the impacts of land change on the environment. The groundwater basin is prone to receive and transmit contamination caused by human activities and land changes. This means that there are parts of the aquifer in the study area that are vulnerable to contamination. We carry out a spatial distribution analysis of the parameters and conditions under which the groundwater could be contaminated. The salinity of the groundwater seems likely to expand to most of the Gaza Strip due to high levels of fresh water extraction and high population growth. 2 .2. Objectives The research focuses on the methods and techniques for modeling and analyzing land use and cover growth. This is a complex phenomenon especially in our case study area in the Gaza Strip. Urban development involves change, growth and decline. Modelling land change scenarios must necessarily include the physical and socioeconomic dimensions of land change and its impacts on the environment. The main objective is to find a model and easily applicable techniques to help the decision- makers and other key stakeholders in Palestine by offering different scenarios for the future planning of the Gaza Strip within the framework of the following broad objectives of this study: • Identification and delineation of different land use and land cover categories using remote sensing data and rectified aerial photographs. • Simulation, scenarios, modeling and prediction of land use and land cover in the Gaza Strip. • Generation of data regarding the changes that have taken place in the area in various land use and land cover categories over different periods. • Building a GIS database for the study areas. • Modeling and prediction of environmental indicators such as the vulnerability of groundwater to pollution, and the salinity of the groundwater. • Helping decision-makers take decisions on land-use management, city planning, the environmental situation and future scenarios for Gaza and its people. 3. Study Area The Gaza Strip is a narrow area on the Mediterranean coastal plain. It is approximately 41 km long, and from 6 to 12 km wide, with a total area of 365 km². It shares a 12 km border with Egypt to the southwest and is surrounded by Israel to the east and north (the rest of the Strip - 51 km of borders), as shown in Figure 3.1. The Gaza Strip has a temperate climate, with mild winters (about 13ºC) and hot summers with frequent droughts (high 20s ºC). Average rainfall is about 300 mm a year (MOAg 2013). The terrain is flat or rolling, with dunes near the coast. In terms of topography the Gaza Strip slopes gradually downwards from east to west with the land surface elevation varying between 10 m above sea level in the west to 110 m above sea level in the east. 4. Methodology This thesis addresses two main practical research questions. First, land change analysis, scenarios and modelling and second, land change impacts on the environment within a study of water quality in the Gaza Strip as a result of land change, increasing population and a fall in agriculture areas. The first question addressed is that of land change analysis and modelling (Part 4.1). The results and discussions of our research on this question are set out in Chapters 5 and 6: Chapter 5: Scenario of land use and land cover change in the Gaza Strip using Remote Sensing and GIS model, • Chapter 6: Urban land use change analysis and modelling: a case study of the Gaza Strip. The second main issue, namely the impacts of land change use on the environment is analyzed from two different perspectives: • Part 4.2 shows the methodology used in Chapter 7 in which we assess the vulnerability of the aquifer to contamination in Khan Younis Governorate, Gaza Strip—Palestine, using the DRASTIC model within GIS. • Part 4.3 shows the methodology used in Chapter 8 in which we study the efficacy of GIS as a tool for analyzing groundwater salinity, once again looking at the Gaza Strip as a case study. Part II: Results and Discussion. Chapters 5 and 6 Chapter 5: Abuelaish B., Camacho Olmedo MT (2016). Scenario of land use and land cover change in the Gaza Strip using Remote Sensing and GIS models, Journal: Arabian Journal of Geosciences, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12517-015-2292-7 Land use and land cover change is a major global environmental change issue, and projecting changes are essential for the assessment of the environment. The population of the Gaza Strip will have grown to over 2.4 million inhabitants by 2023, and the land demands will exceed the sustainable capacity of land use by far. Land use planning is one of the most difficult issues in the Gaza Strip given that this area is too small. Continuous urban and industrial growth will place additional stress on land cover, unless appropriate integrated planning and management actions are instituted immediately. Planners need further statistics and estimation tools to achieve their vision for the future based on sound information. Therefore, this study combines the use of satellite remote sensing with geographic information systems (GISs). The spatial database is developed by using five Landsat images gathered in 1972, 1982, 1990, 2002 and 2013. Three GIS models in Idrisi Selva software were selected to try to project the urban area in 2023: Geomod, Cellular Automata Markov (CA_Markov) and Land Change Modeler (LCM). We also used statistical estimation using the regression function to highlight the quantitative difference between the regression and the Markov chain. The three GIS models were used to simulate likely urban areas in 2023 in a single scenario. The results showed a drastic change in land cover and the growth of the urban area from 1972 to 2013 in all three models, while the agricultural areas were converted into urban areas. These models can help land use managers and city planners to understand probable future growth and plan further developments. Urban areas are continuously increasing in time, whereas non-urban or agricultural areas are receding. The results of the simulation showed the same quantity of urban area by 2023 in all three models according to the Markov chains, i.e. 212.3 km2 (58.3% of the total area of the Gaza Strip), although spatial differences could be observed between the forecasts made by the three models for the urban area in each of the five governorates. The results of the past trend scenario for spatial distribution in 2023 highlighted certain differences between the three GIS models; there are similarities in the allocation of urban area, in both Geomod and CA_Markov, and there are differences in LCM, which found that urban expansion will cover 59 % of the area. The urban expansion predicted in the three models tends to be located near the urban area for 2013. This clearly makes sense given that buildings are usually constructed and money is usually invested around main roads adjacent to urban areas. Geomod also shows clear expansion near the roads in the north of the Strip in the restricted area (buffer zone driver) near the border. We observed differences in the spatial distribution of all the models in each Governorate. The data analysis shows an increase in the urbanized area from 10.9 km2 (1972) to 25.3 (1982), 46.9 (1990), 100.2 (2002), 166.3 (2013) and 212.3 km2 (2023), the average area predicted by all the simulations for the whole of the Gaza Strip (around 58.8 % of the total). Urban expansion is positively correlated with population growth, such that the density of population in the Gaza Strip is also expected to increase from 4661.5 in 2013 to 6704.3 inhabitants per square kilometre in 2023. However, as most Gazans live in the cities, the actual density of population in urban areas will rise from 10,231.1 in 2013 to 11,526.4 inhabitants per square kilometre in 2023, making the Strip one of the most densely populated areas in the world. The study shows a rapid annual urban growth rate in each time period (1972–1982, 1982–1990, 1990–2002, 2002–2013 and 2013– 2023) of 1.4, 2.7, 4.4, 6, and 3.8 km2 per year. In the absence of management and planning, agricultural land (non-urban area) cover will therefore continue to decline at an alarming rate. Chapter 6: Abuelaish B. (2018) Urban land use change analysis and modelling: a case study of the Gaza Strip. In: Camacho Olmedo, Maria Teresa; Paegelow, Martin; Mas, Jean-François and Escobar, Francisco J (Eds.) Geomatic approaches for modeling land change scenarios. Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography LNGC series (http://www.springer.com/series/7418) Series Editors: Cartwright, W., Gartner, G., Meng, L., Peterson, M.P. ISSN: 1863-2246. Springer Verlag. Berlin, Heidelberg, New York. ISBN: 978-3-319-60800-6 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-60801-3 The analysis of land use and land cover change is of prime importance for understanding the ecological dynamics resulting from natural and human activities, and for the assessment and prediction of environmental change. The population of the Gaza Strip will have grown to more than 2.4 million by 2023 all of whom are forced to live within an area of some 365 km². This growth in population will lead to an increase in land demand, and will far exceed the sustainable land use capacity. The Gaza Strip is a relatively small area in which land use planning has not kept up with land development. Continued urban expansion and population growth in the future will place additional stress on land cover, unless appropriate integrated planning and management decisions are taken immediately. Decision-makers need further statistics and estimation tools to achieve their vision for the future of the Gaza Strip based on sound, accurate information. This study combines the use of satellite remote sensing with geographic information systems (GISs). The spatial database was developed by using six Landsat images taken in 1972, 1982, 1990, 2002, 2013 and 2014, together with different geodatabases for those years. In order to project the urban area in 2023, we selected a GIS model in IdrisiTerrset software called the Land Change Model (LCM). This model is used to analyse land cover change, empirically modeling its relationship to explanatory variables and projecting future changes (Eastman 2012). The results showed a drastic change in land cover and the growth of the urban area between 1972 and 2014, when many agricultural areas were urbanized. This has happened in a largely unplanned, somewhat chaotic fashion, so revealing the need for land-use managers and city planners to understand future growth and plan further developments. Over this period urban areas have grown continuously, whereas non-urban (agricultural) areas have shrunk at similar rates. The MLP Neural network was used to obtain the transition potential map for the transition from Non-Urban to Urban area, based on the real transition over the various calibration periods (1972, 1982, 1990, and 2002) to 2013, and (2002) to 2014. The high transition potential values are located around the built-up area with the biggest population density (low distance) for the five scenarios. The study shows a comparison between six past trend scenarios. Five past trend scenarios were selected for simulation to be completed by the year 2023 using the Land Change Modeler in the IdrisiTerrset software. These different scenarios, one of which takes into account the damage incurred during the 2014 War, try to cover the possible variations in area and spatial distribution resulting from changes in land use. The first five scenarios are the Markov chains from (1972-2013), (1982-2013), (1990-2013), (2002-2013) and (2002-2014) to 2023; and the sixth one is the regression line to 2023 depending on the basic data using the Enter method, which gave areas of 202.35, 204.89, 206.95, 212.32, 204.70 and 240.79 Km², respectively. The overall results of the five LCM scenarios analyse and simulate land-use changes in the Gaza Strip. The results of the past trend scenarios for spatial distribution per area in 2023 presented both differences and similarities in the allocation of urban area. We discovered an inverse relationship between the predicted area by 2023 and the length of the calibration period, in that the longer the calibration period the smaller the growth in urban area predicted. The urban areas for 2023 predicted by the calibration periods (1972-2013), (1982-2013), (1990-2013) and (2002-2013) were 202.35 km², 204.89 km², 206.95 km² and 212.32 km². The calibration period (2002-2014), which showed an increase in urban area to 204.7 km² by 2023, is slightly exceptional due to the fact that it includes the 2014 War. The results for calibration periods 2002-2013 and 2002-2014 have a high “goodness of fit”, because they both obtained values close to the regression analysis value (240.79) used to measure statistical best fit values, while the values for the other scenarios were substantially further away from the regression analysis value. As a percentage of the total area of the Gaza Strip, the scenarios predict that between 56.21 and 58.98% will be urbanized by 2023. The data analysis shows an increase in the urban area from 10.9 (1972) to 25.3 (1982), 46.9 (1990), 100.2 (2002), 166.3 (2013) and an average over the five scenarios of 206.24 km² in 2023, the average area predicted by the various simulations for the whole Gaza Strip (i.e. around 57.13% of the total). While the decrease in Agricultural areas (Non-Urban Area) was caused by an increase in population growth rate and a lack of management and future planning. This study illustrates the increase in the rate of growth in urban area as a percentage of the total area of the Gaza Strip for each time period (1972-1982), (1983-1990), (1991-2002), (2003-2013), 2014 and (2015-2023), with rates of 0.40, 0.7584, 1.35, 1.83, -0.39 and 1.44% from 1972 to 2023, which implies a positive relationship with the rate of population growth. This study tries to answer questions about the future of the Gaza Strip and the impacts on its environment. This information is useful for decision-makers and politicians, who are regularly faced with questions about the complicated situation in the Gaza Strip as a result of its weak economic resources, and the lack of donor support from countries concerned about other conflicts such as in Syria. Most of the houses destroyed during the war belong to poor people who are waiting for financial support to rebuild them. Many urban areas were destroyed during the war and their reconstruction would be harder without modeling exercises such as the one presented here. Part III: Results and Discussion. Chapters 7 and 8 Chapter 7 AlHallaq, A.H., and Abuelaish, B. (2012) Assessment of aquifer vulnerability to contamination in Khan Younis Governorate, Gaza Strip—Palestine. using the DRASTIC model within GIS environment. Arab J Geosci 5:833–847, doi:10.1007/s12517-011-0284-9 Groundwater is a very important natural resource in Khan Younis Governorate (the study area) for water supply and development. Historically, the exploitation of aquifers in Khan Younis Governorate has been undertaken without proper concern for its environmental impact. In view of the importance of quality groundwater, it might be expected that aquifer protection to prevent groundwater quality deterioration would have received due attention. In the long term, however, protection of groundwater resources is of direct practical importance because, once pollution of groundwater has been allowed to occur, the scale and persistence of such pollution makes restoration technically difficult and costly. In order to maintain basin aquifer as a source of water for the area, it is necessary to find out whether certain locations in this groundwater basin are susceptible to receive and transmit contamination. This study aims to: (1) assess the vulnerability of the aquifer in Khan Younis Governorate to contamination, (2) discover which parts of the aquifer are most vulnerable, and (3) provide a spatial analysis of the parameters and conditions under which groundwater may become contaminated. To this end, we applied the DRASTIC model within a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. The model uses seven environmental parameters: depth of water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of vadose zone, and hydraulic conductivity to evaluate aquifer vulnerability. Based on this model and by using ArcGIS 9.3 software, an attempt was made to create vulnerability maps for the study area. According to the DRASTIC model index, the study has shown that in the western part of the study area the vulnerability to contamination ranges between high (in 26.16% of the total area) and very high (in 3.14% of the total area), due to the relatively shallow water table with moderate to high recharge potential, and permeable soils. In the eastern and south-eastern part of this Governorate, vulnerability to contamination is moderate (43.44%). In the central and the eastern part, vulnerability to contamination is low (27.24% of the total area) due to the depth of the water table. The DRASTIC Model also indicates that the highest risk of contamination of groundwater in the study area originates from the soil media. The impact of vadose zone, depth to water level, and hydraulic conductivity offer moderate risks of contamination, while net recharge, aquifer media, and topography are low risk factors. The coefficient of variation indicates that topography makes a high contribution to variations in the vulnerability index. Depth to water level, and net recharge make moderate contributions, while the impact of the vadose zone, hydraulic conductivity, soil media, and aquifer media are the least variable parameters. The low variability of the parameters implies a smaller contribution to the variation of the vulnerability index across the study area. Moreover, the “effective” weights of the DRASTIC parameters obtained in this study exhibited some deviation from that of the “theoretical” weights. Soil media and the impact of the vadose zone were the most effective parameters in the vulnerability assessment because their mean “effective” weights were higher than their respective “theoretical” weights. The depth of the water table showed that both “effective” and “theoretical” weights were equal. The rest of the parameters exhibit lower “effective” weights compared with the “theoretical” weights. This explains the importance of soil media and vadose layers in the DRASTIC model. It is therefore important to get accurate and detailed information about these two specific parameters. The GIS technique has provided an efficient environment for analysis and is capable of handling large amounts of spatial data. In view of these results, the DRASTIC model has proved to be a useful tool that can be used by national authorities and decision makers, especially in agricultural areas in which the chemicals and pesticides most likely to contaminate groundwater resources are applied. Chapter 8 Abuelaish B., Camacho Olmedo MT (under revision) GIS as a tool to analyze groundwater salinity: The Gaza Strip as a case study The Gaza Strip suffers from an acute problem in terms of water quality and quantity. Groundwater is used as drinking water, for agricultural uses and in industrial processes. Salinity is increasing in groundwater in the Gaza Strip. Seawater intrusion is the main source of salinity. A chloride ion-selective is used as an indicator of salinity for the analysis and modelling of the salinity of groundwater in the Gaza Strip by 2023. Research depends on three models for prediction of the chloride concentration in groundwater: Linear regression, Multiple regression, and Forecasting for year 2023. Groundwater is an important source of fresh water in the Gaza Strip for domestic and irrigation use. Groundwater quality is influenced by geological formation and anthropogenic activities, e.g. changes in land use, urbanization, intensive irrigated agriculture, mining activities, disposal of untreated sewage in rivers, lack of rational management, etc. (Voudouris, 2009). Groundwater contamination due to human activities may pose a severe threat for public health. The study illustrates the chloride concentrations in the groundwater within six cross sections for 1993, 2003 and 2013. It focuses exclusively on urban areas for which purposes the non-urban areas are masked. The chloride concentration of groundwater in the whole of the Gaza Strip was classified into six classes for the years 1972, 1982, 1993, 2003 and 2013. The simulation of chloride concentrations for 1993, 2003 and 2013 (inside the urban area for 2013) demonstrates that in urban areas particularly the chloride concentration has increased clearly over the years. There is a positive relationship with the expansion of urban areas in all cross sections. Higher chloride concentrations were observed in urban areas in 2013 than in previous years in 1993 and 2002. There are some differences in the simulated results for chloride concentrations in the three models (Forecasting Model, Linear Regression Model, and Multiple Linear Regression Model) for the year 2023, which are classified into six classes. The chloride concentration profiles show that water chloride concentration is increasing and expanding in all six cross sections. The result for the three models showed water salinity will increase in all areas in the Gaza Strip by the year 2023. The visual analysis of the cross sections is based on the water data analysis profiles, which describe how the chloride level has continued to increase all over the Gaza Strip along the time series from 1972 to 2023. The rise in the chloride concentration is evident in the whole of the Gaza Strip in all three models. The trend of expansion from west to east due to seawater intrusion is also evident in all cross sections. Calculation of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values as predictive power shows that the Multiple Linear Regression has a value of 1631.723, followed by Forecasting with 1656.9, and then Linear Regression with 1668.3. According to RMSE, Multiple Linear Regression is therefore the best model in our study, with the Forecasting model and Linear Regression in second and third places. When the stepwise method in Multiple Linear Regression is used by SPSS, the wells are affected by all input variables at a different rate; the most effective variable is the year, around 45%, while population has a figure of 35 %, production 10 %, rainfall 10 % and water level 10%. The data inputs and output for the chloride concentration from 1972-2013 and 2023 represent the severe changes that have taken place in the Gaza Strip. This increase in chloride concentration can be seen right across the Gaza Strip. By the year 2023 the area in the North Governorate in which the water has a chloride concentration of less than 250 mg/L and is therefore considered free of salinity will be only a small fraction (less than 10%) of the Gaza Strip. The analysis of seawater intrusion within the cross sections shows that this problem is repeated along the coastline and spreads out from the Mediterranean Sea to the Eastern part of the Gaza Strip. In this study, one scenario shows an increase in chloride concentration as an indicator of salinity by 2023. Another scenario involves the construction of a large desalination plant in the Gaza Strip. The EU has invested EUR 10 million during this phase which, when fully operational, will produce 6,000 m3 of potable water daily. This will provide over 75,000 Palestinians with safe drinking water—approximately 35,000 people in Khan Younis and 40,000 people in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip. EU Commissioner Johannes Hahn announced an additional funding of EUR 10 Million for the second phase of the desalination plant to start in mid-June 2016, which is expected to be completed within 36 months. Then the plant will produce a total of 12,000 m3 of safe drinkable water everyday (IMEMC, 2016). The annual increase in the amount of water required in the Gaza Strip is 2,240,437 m3 per year from 2016 to 2023. Hence the desalination plant will reduce the shortage of drinking water. If the EU plant works as planned, it will produce 4,380,000 m3 annually after 36 months. Conclusion and perspectives Conclusions The thesis offers a better understanding of potential options for urban land use expansion by highlighting some of the key drivers behind LUCC in the Gaza Strip, for example population, socioeconomic drivers, the political situation and the Israeli occupation. It also explores the impact of urban expansion on environmental aspects such as water quality and climate change. The following main conclusions can be drawn from this thesis: • Around 57.13 to 58.8% % of the Gaza Strip will be urban land by 2023. • There are differences in the spatial distribution of the urban area produced by each model (Geomod, CA_Markov and LCM). • There is an inverse relationship between the predicted urban area for 2023 and the length of the calibration period as tested using five scenarios and the Land Change Modeler in Chapter 6. • Urbanization in the Gaza Strip is increasing dramatically because of natural population growth. This is placing more stress on agricultural areas, causing soil erosion and impairing water quality and quantity. • Urban sprawl has increased over time at the expense of agricultural land, above all due to an increase in population. • An increase in agricultural land in the Gaza Strip will put pressure on natural resources and contribute to local and global climate change. • Urban planners should take into account that in the near future the three main urban areas will merge into one, and population should be directed to vertical construction to reduce urban expansion. • The Gaza Strip can contribute to climate change mitigation and has the potential to adapt its land cover. • Urban expansion affects water quality and quantity, air quality, coastal zone management, and marine environment. Within cities, the nature of urban growth is an important determinant of the vulnerability of urban dwellers to environmental stress (Güneralp and Seto, 2008) • Urban planners and decisions makers should take into account the danger of groundwater being polluted within the areas in the aquifer identified as vulnerable. Our results show that the DRASTIC model can be an effective tool for local authorities, and for the water authority responsible for managing groundwater resources. • Groundwater salinity has extended everywhere in the Gaza Strip as a result of rapid population growth and urban expansion. Salinity is likely to continue to expand to most areas of the Gaza Strip by 2023. • This study can help decision makers in land-use management, city planning, the environmental situation and future scenarios for Gaza. Perspectives This study aspires to provide a starting point for other researchers on land use and land cover changes. It recommends that future studies should pay particular attention to the following research topics in the Gaza Strip: • Providing further assistance for environmentalists and planners to consider the impacts of urban land use development by identifying urban expansion. • Using high resolution satellite images to produce accurate data for monitoring and analysis, scenarios, modelling and projection of LUCC and other environmental indicators for the Gaza Strip. • Planners and decision makers should develop a strategic plan to prevent the decline of agricultural lands. • Updating and upgrading of the LUCC GIS database within periodic data collection. • In order to ensure sustainable urban developments, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) should be carried out for all future projects in the Gaza Strip, so as to reduce negative environmental impacts. • Future research must consider all these limitations and apply an advanced modeling approach that would enable long-term forecasting. • Future studies should focus on the impacts of land-use changes on climate change and environmental elements such as air pollution, coastal erosion related to harbours, urban heat islands, decreasing numbers of flora and fauna, land capability and productivity, etc. References The list of references contains bibliographic information about every source cited in the thesis. Research materials are not included in the list of references, but rather in the parts of the report dealing with the research implementation, data, and methods. The list of references is generally presented in alphabetical order according to the authors’ last names, year, title of article, publisher. Annexes (a brief description) The annexes contain two annexes that show the quality of published research articles and the contribution of the study area to climate change: Annex I - Impact factor and quality analysis of contributions (chapter 7, chapter 5. chapter 6). Annex II - CO2 emissions in the Gaza Strip.